Check the base rate for a setup

Desk seat: Research

The problem

People judge ideas by stories, not by how often similar ideas work.

What the agent does

Finds historical base rates or studies for your type of idea, and admits when none exist.

Copy-paste prompt

What is known about the historical base rate for this kind of idea: [e.g. buying after a large post-earnings drop]? Cite studies or data with links. If you can't find reliable sources, say so clearly rather than estimating. Do not give buy/sell/hold advice or price targets; label facts vs. inferences and cite sources.

Works with

Grok, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or any similar assistant.

Linked tools

Perplexity Finance: Quick cited answers about companies and markets
Claude: Long filings, careful devil's-advocate writing

Linked roles

Devil's Advocate, Data Checker

Limitations

Models may invent studies, so open every citation. AI can be wrong, so verify before relying on any output.

Source

Perplexity Finance (cited answers)

Educational only. Not financial advice. The Agentic Trader teaches how to organize AI agents around your own research and review process. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or asset. We do not endorse any broker, platform, or asset. AI output can be wrong, so verify everything and make your own decisions. Trading and investing involve risk of loss.